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The Black Swan

The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Second Edition, With a New Section: "On Robustness and Fragility"

By Nassim Nicholas Taleb

(12)

| eBook | 9780679604181

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Book Description

A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows in a playful way that Black Swan events explain almost everything about our world, and y Continue

A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows in a playful way that Black Swan events explain almost everything about our world, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. In this second edition, Taleb has added a new essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, randomness, human error, probability, and the philosophy of knowledge. He managed to transform his interests into three successful careers, as a man of letters, businessman-trader-risk manager, and university professor. Although he spends most of his time as a flâneur, meditating in cafés across the planet, he is currently Distinguished Professor at New York University's Polytechnic Institute and Principal of Universa. His books Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan have been published in 31 languages. He is widely recognized as the foremost thinker on probability and uncertainty. Taleb lives mostly in New York.

250 Reviews

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  • 1 person finds this helpful

    Overrated

    Assolutamente sopravvalutato.
    A parte che di idee ne contiene numero una, voltata e rivoltata più volte, è spiegato con spocchia, organizzato da dilettante e scritto male.

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    Marco Sola said on Sep 28, 2014 | Add your feedback

  • 1 person finds this helpful

    很多有趣味的觀點
    但是
    作者也太愛罵人了吧

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    Kindkiller said on Aug 2, 2014 | Add your feedback

  • 1 person finds this helpful

    有許多有趣的論點。

    但對沒有專業知識的人來說,這本書太過艱深了。

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    Eren said on Jul 22, 2014 | Add your feedback

  • 1 person finds this helpful

    本書最有趣的論點,是現在很多科學論點建立在T型分布,但真實世界根本沒裡想的T型分布,所以這是唬爛騙錢的偽科學,作者舉金融界為例,但我認為醫學也有這問題

    我常舉的例子,就是工程師來你公司修電腦,修了半天修不好,然後說依據統計,有多少百分比修不好是正常的,所以他沒有錯,還是伸手跟你要鉅額修理費,請問你老闆會答應嗎?但醫界、金融業都這麼做

    用T型分佈統計來唬人的科學,的確都是很可議地!

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    Lisa Hsu said on Jun 29, 2014 | Add your feedback

  • 1 person finds this helpful

    Da schieramento

    Letto in seguito ad una suggestione di un amico sociologo. E' uno di quei libri che ti costringe a schierarti (si vede anche dai commenti)o lo ami o lo odi. Un'unica idea forte di fondo sviscerata in modo più narrativo che accademico. Magari tutti i ...(continue)

    Letto in seguito ad una suggestione di un amico sociologo. E' uno di quei libri che ti costringe a schierarti (si vede anche dai commenti)o lo ami o lo odi. Un'unica idea forte di fondo sviscerata in modo più narrativo che accademico. Magari tutti i saggi fossero scritti così. Capisco le critiche di chi pensa che tutto si possa prevedere e calcolare, ma Taleb non abbatte la gaussiana, solamente ritiene che sia per nulla applicabile alla vita reale. da rileggere.

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    Batou70 said on Jun 5, 2014 | Add your feedback

  • 1 person finds this helpful

    Libro noioso ed estremamente ripetitivo

    Il concetto è uno solo, ripetuto all'infinito con esempi di varia natura.L'autore deve aver subito qualche trauma con la curva a campana.

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    Stefano Lualdi said on Jun 3, 2014 | Add your feedback

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