Fooled by Randomness

The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life, First Edition

Average vote of 494
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This book is about luck -- or more precisely how we perceive and deal with luck in business and life.

Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill -- the world of trading -- Fooled by Randomness is a

Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill -- the world of trading -- Fooled by Randomness is a captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining and narrative style, the author succeeds in tackling and explaining three major intellectual issues: the problem of induction, the survivorship biases, and our genetic unfitness to the modern world.

The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: Yogi Berra, the baseball legend; Karl Popper, the philosopher of knowledge; Solon, the Ancient World's wisest man; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Ulysses. In addition we meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his trading life, but who also falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.

But the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed -- the lucky fool in the right place at the right time. The embodiment of the "Survival of the Least Fit." Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru's insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained through chance. A monkey banging on a keyboard may eventually produce the Iliad, but would you sign him to write the sequel?

Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary?

Must we always try to uncover non-existent messages in random events?

It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the Goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared. ...Continua

Ha scritto il 05/05/14
An easier read than the Black Swan
By the author of Black Swan but written before it. This book has made Nassim famous but also "hated" in some quarters for his show no mercy comments.

I read Black Swan before this book, and like both. In a way, Fooled by Randomness is an eas
...Continua
Ha scritto il 17/11/13
這禮拜看了《隨機的致富陷阱:解開生活中的機率之謎》(Fooled by randomness : the hidden role of chance in the markets and in life)。作者是 Taleb, Nassim Nicholas,他的新作也就是這幾年知名度很高的《黑天鵝效應》。其實這本書裡頭所講的可以跟快思慢想做相呼應,都是談論人類思維裡對於機率概念的偏見。不過這本書用250頁的篇幅只談一個概念,就是隨機性。

世界是複雜的,我們的生活中有太多的東西
...Continua
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Ha scritto il 03/05/13
"過去績效不能代表未來績效" 這句在常見於銷售基金DM下方的警示小句,正可以表示很多投資"專家"的成功是無法複製的,因為那根本是運氣。 那要如何在未知的狀況下致富?作者沒有說(還是我沒看出來)
Ha scritto il 04/01/13
A book to re-read
It provided me with a great literature review on philosophy, behavioral economics/psychology and upheld the beliefs that I hold... but in a more structured manner.

As such, I will re-read it when I find myself particularly at the mercy of my
...Continua
Ha scritto il 23/01/11
At least, be aware
In his witty, informative, sober yet often ludicrous and sarcastic tone, Taleb expounds on the simple yet unsolvable problem of inference. This problem is as old as Solon at least, who already warned against the human tendency to infer from little em ...Continua

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