Publisher: W. W. Norton & Company
Isbn-10: 1587990717 | Isbn-13: 9781587990717 | Publish date: 01/10/2001
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Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill -- the world of trading -- Fooled by Randomness is a captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining and narrative style, the author succeeds in tackling and explaining three major intellectual issues: the problem of induction, the survivorship biases, and our genetic unfitness to the modern world.
The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: Yogi Berra, the baseball legend; Karl Popper, the philosopher of knowledge; Solon, the Ancient World's wisest man; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Ulysses. In addition we meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his trading life, but who also falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.
But the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed -- the lucky fool in the right place at the right time. The embodiment of the "Survival of the Least Fit." Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru's insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained through chance. A monkey banging on a keyboard may eventually produce the Iliad, but would you sign him to write the sequel?
Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary?
Must we always try to uncover non-existent messages in random events?
It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the Goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.
By the author of Black Swan but written before it. This book has made Nassim famous but also "hated" in some quarters for his show no mercy comments.
I read Black Swan before this book, and like both. In a way, Fooled by Randomness is an easier read for most. While the thoughts are equally deep (for the underlining thougths of the two books are the same), the flow of writing is smoother and easier to follow.
The chapter on the Problem of Induction is very well written and I strongly recommend it to all who are interested in human knowledge and its true nature.
KK said on May 05, 2014, 03:48
Hikaru6532 said on Feb 09, 2014, 06:41
Interessante nelle disquisizioni su informazione e rumore, sul bluff della statistica applicata alla previsione del futuro. Insopportabile nelle paternali sul vivere da stoico: facile quando si ha (come suppongo) un conto corrente a diversi zeri, guadagnati proprio con i comportamenti che si vuole criticare.
Yarnspinner said on Feb 05, 2014, 16:49
Giancarlo Bernardi said on Jan 11, 2014, 18:58
Lee Linus said on Nov 26, 2013, 16:59
這禮拜看了《隨機的致富陷阱：解開生活中的機率之謎》（Fooled by randomness : the hidden role of chance in the markets and in life）。作者是 Taleb, Nassim Nicholas，他的新作也就是這幾年知名度很高的《黑天鵝效應》。其實這本書裡頭所講的可以跟快思慢想做相呼應，都是談論人類思維裡對於機率概念的偏見。不過這本書用250頁的篇幅只談一個概念，就是隨機性。
世界是複雜的，我們的生活中有太多的東西是透過隨機性而產生的。我們很難去劃分他的成功裡頭有多少成分是運氣、有多少成分是實力。短期間裡頭，隨機性容易作怪，但到了長時間的尺度上，這些隨機性會被相互的抵消。凱因斯說過：「In the long run,we are all dead」很可惜，人的壽命有限，也就區區的幾十年。在年輕的歲月裡，我們可能必須在不到十年裡頭去和別人競爭、賺錢。對於這種急迫。我想，我們必須向隨機性低頭。隨機性是不可避免的，我們也沒辦法改變自身的運氣。那我們能做什麼？評估合理的效益和成本，在自己所能接受的時間尺度內盡量的消除隨機性。有三、五年的時間，就學學巴菲特做個價值型的股票投資人。只有半年甚至是幾個月的時間，那只好做個短線投機者。這麼做的隨機性肯定很大，風險也很大。但是，如果能夠收集更多的資訊，在有更多把握的情況下才進場，那也能夠賺錢。
紅默客 said on Nov 17, 2013, 09:32
Dopo “Il cigno nero” anche questo libro mi è piaciuto molto. E’ stimolante, ti fa vedere le cose in maniera diversa e ho potuto apprezzare la correttezza dell’approccio per alcune situazioni, che conosco bene personalmente, perché inerenti al mio ambito professionale (p.es. valore predittivo di un test).
Alegna said on Nov 15, 2013, 15:52
Assolutamente da non perdere se si ha interesse ad approfondire il ruolo del caso nella vita. "La lezione che ho tratto ... è di iniziare ogni riunione nel mio ufficio di trading convincendo tutti che siamo solo un mucchio di idioti che non sanno nulla, inclini a commettere errori, ma dotati del raro privilegio di saperlo".
Claudio Tiranti said on Aug 25, 2013, 18:10
AJ said on Jul 06, 2013, 10:37
1280639010 said on May 03, 2013, 23:43