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Future Babble

Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better

By Dan Gardner

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| Others | 9780525952053

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Book Description

An award-winning journalist uses landmark research to debunk the whole expertprediction industry, and explores the psychology of our obsession with ...

Critics

  • Why Experts Get the Future Wrong

    What does the future hold? To answer that question, human beings have looked to stars and to dreams; to cards, dice and the Delphic oracle; to animal entrails, Alan Green­span, mathematical models, the palms of our hands. As the number and variety of ... (read full critics)

    nytimes published on Sun, 27 Mar 2011

  • What’s in all those predictions? Turns out, nothing much.

    It’s hard to turn on a TV without seeing a bold prediction. Gold will go up. Oil will go down. China will launch a trade war against the United States. Each prediction is more confident than the last. There’s a dirty secret behind these prognosticati ... (read full critics)

    boston published on Wed, 23 Mar 2011

1 Review

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  • An attempt to a response of why we keep believing in fortunetellers.

    In the old times, the fortuneteller killed a chicken and told us our future based on the location of its organs. In current times, they open another animal: a database, a report, a trending line, etc, and tell us our future based on the location of the symbols. The problem is not that both fortunete ... (continue)

    In the old times, the fortuneteller killed a chicken and told us our future based on the location of its organs. In current times, they open another animal: a database, a report, a trending line, etc, and tell us our future based on the location of the symbols. The problem is not that both fortunetellers are louzy, but why are us, human beings so conditioned to believe in them? Why do we need them so much? Why we keep paying them oer and over again not caring that they are wrong 50 (or more) percent of the time? This is the problem that this book explores and although it does not offer a conclusive answer, reading it is a very entertaining activity.

    Is this helpful?

    ariadna73 said on May 3, 2011 | Add your feedback

Book Details

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  • English Books
  • Others 320 Pages
  • ISBN-10: 0525952055
  • ISBN-13: 9780525952053
  • Publisher: E P Dutton
  • Pub date: Mar 17, 2011
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9780525952053 Others $26.95 $19.40 bn.com
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