The Signal and the Noise

Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't

Average vote of 182
| 3 total contributions of which 3 reviews , 0 quotes , 0 images , 0 notes , 0 video
This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
lorenz347
Ha scritto il 07/08/14
insightful
Great book about predictions that try to provide subjects and objects for thinking to avoid our fallacies. Very insightful, it start to describe the parallels of the reality and the check of facts in a way that tackle the least economic crisis throug...Continua
Waleswong
Ha scritto il 01/08/13
It is an interesting book. But the elaboration is too deep dive. Sometimes the focus is lost. Takeaways: - we are eager so to spot pattern that we are fooled by randomness - sometimes predictions are biased to the safe side ( weather report of rain...Continua
Boris Limpopo
Ha scritto il 01/12/12
Silver, Nate (2012). The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don’t. New York: The Penguin Press. 2012. ISBN 9781101595954. Pagine 545. 15,67 € Un libro molto bello, anche se tutt’altro che perfetto. Un libro pieno di eccessi,...Continua

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