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Think Again

避開錯誤決策的4個陷阱

By 安德魯‧坎貝爾 (Andrew Campbell),喬‧懷海德 (Jo Whitehead),席尼‧芬克斯坦 (Sydney Finkelstein)

(52)

| Paperback | 9789571351179

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Book Description

2 Reviews

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  • 1 person finds this helpful

    Part Neuroscience, Part Intuition.

    First of all, if you haven't read any other titles on neuro-science or decision-making, this will be a good introduction.

    I have read books like: How We Decide, Why We Make Mistakes, Sway. If you have similar stuff on your bookshelf, don't bother ...(continue)

    First of all, if you haven't read any other titles on neuro-science or decision-making, this will be a good introduction.

    I have read books like: How We Decide, Why We Make Mistakes, Sway. If you have similar stuff on your bookshelf, don't bother reading this one.

    This book tries to do 3 thihgs:
    1. How we make decisions and why are we prone to making wrong decisions.
    2. What are the situations under which we are most vulnerable in making a flawed decision.
    3. What can we do about it.

    For starters, 95% of what is written about 1. is a shallower and briefer reproduction of the books I mentioned above.

    For 2., it tries to teach us how to spot "red flags" i.e. misleading experience, misleading judgments, inappropriate self-interest and inappropriate emotions. (Which, I think, could be summarized in one word: biases). Basically, it says that we have to beware of our biases, which are generated from our previous experiences and emotions, because they work subconsicously.

    For 3., it basically tells us what we already know: we should confront the decision makers with alternative views and options and arguments against their initial judgment; we should discuss and debate before making important decisions; we should have corporate governance mechanisms to counterbalance the key decision-makers' views and we need to track the outcomes of the decisions in order to spot problems early. Aren't all these intuitive?

    The reality is, even if we have all the above "practical suggestions" in place, there's still no guarantee that the decision-makers - usually those with great power and a huge ego - to listen to other people's opinion and take heed of contrary data that is staring at their faces. And the truth is, risk and contrary views are inherent in every decision. It is very likely that even after considering, thoroughly and whole-heartedly, all the options available, people calling the shots would stick to their own judgments - with a much stronger claim: now that they have already discussed and considered alternative courses of actions.

    Not that practical after all.

    If you like this review, please feel free to visit my blog about marketing: http://kerinlo.blogspot.com

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    kerinlo.blogspot.com said on Mar 20, 2010 | Add your feedback

  • 1 person finds this helpful

    這本很像工具書,書中提出四種容易造成決策偏差的警訊。書中有提出一系列的處理辦法。

    書裡面舉的例子有點少,古巴危機、偷襲珍珠港、卡崔娜風災,一直在講這幾個決策問題。讓我有點不知道這本書提到的方法能不能用在我的生活中,畢竟我不是那麼偉大的官員。

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    大紅先生 said on Jan 31, 2010 | Add your feedback

Book Details

  • Rating:
    (52)
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  • Paperback 283 Pages
  • ISBN-10: 9571351172
  • ISBN-13: 9789571351179
  • Publisher: 時報文化
  • Publish date: 2009-11-06
  • In other languages: other languages English Books
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