aNobii: ary29's note: Freakonomics [Revised and Expanded]

ary29's note : Freakonomics [Revised and Expanded]

	Original text	Comment
265	For a team that has a 35 percent chance of winning each game, the chance of losing its next 19 games is about one in 4,000. [...] It takes about 12 or 13 years for these two bad teams to have a total of 4,000 chances for a 19-game losing streak.	The chance of losing a game is then 1 - 0.35 = 0.65. IF we assume that each game's outcome is independent from the others (as in repeated coin tosses), then the probability of losing 19 consecutive games is 0.65^19 = 0.0002788. It's comparable to 1/4000 = 0.00025, but it's actually approx. 1/3586. With 324 games per year, it would take (3586/324) = 11.07 years, approx. 11 years and 26 days. Not exactly 12 or 13 years. Anyway, all the above is dependent on the independent events assumption - if you believe or can prove that!

Original text

Comment

For a team that has a 35 percent chance of winning each game, the chance of losing its next 19 games is about one in 4,000.
[...]
It takes about 12 or 13 years for these two bad teams to have a total of 4,000 chances for a 19-game losing streak.

The chance of losing a game is then 1 - 0.35 = 0.65.

IF we assume that each game's outcome is independent from the others (as in repeated coin tosses), then the probability of losing 19 consecutive games is 0.65^19 = 0.0002788. It's comparable to
1/4000 = 0.00025, but it's actually approx. 1/3586.

With 324 games per year, it would take (3586/324) = 11.07 years, approx. 11 years and 26 days. Not exactly 12 or 13 years.

Anyway, all the above is dependent on the independent events assumption - if you believe or can prove that!

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