The Signal and the Noise

Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't

Average vote of 187
| 4 total contributions of which 4 reviews , 0 quotes , 0 images , 0 notes , 0 video
This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
Upsilon
Wrote 12/15/19

在大數據領域算是一本老書了,另外,翻譯讓這一本原來就生硬的書更加生硬。當GOOGLE的阿發狗打敗人類圍棋手之後,應該沒有想再看深藍西洋棋打敗人類的故事了(雖然這故事也沒太古老)。雖是一本老書了,還是讓人看到了統計學者的優點和侷限。優點就是統計可以應用在太多層面,所以,書裡講得領域非常廣泛,但是,卻也只是用了統計學的觀點。

Wrote 8/7/14
insightful
Great book about predictions that try to provide subjects and objects for thinking to avoid our fallacies. Very insightful, it start to describe the parallels of the reality and the check of facts in a way that tackle the least economic crisis throug...Continua
Waleswong
Wrote 8/1/13
It is an interesting book. But the elaboration is too deep dive. Sometimes the focus is lost. Takeaways: - we are eager so to spot pattern that we are fooled by randomness - sometimes predictions are biased to the safe side ( weather report of rain...Continua
Silver, Nate (2012). The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don’t. New York: The Penguin Press. 2012. ISBN 9781101595954. Pagine 545. 15,67 € Un libro molto bello, anche se tutt’altro che perfetto. Un libro pieno di eccessi,...Continua

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